Saturday, March 11, 2017

My Thoughts: Why I Love NASCAR’s New Stage Points System


        The 2017 NASCAR season is already two races in for all three of the sport’s highest series. The NASCAR Camping World Truck Series saw eighteen-year-old Kaz Grala take the win at Daytona after a crazy last lap flip and Christopher Bell sweep all three stages for the victory at Atlanta. In the NASCAR Xfinity Series, Ryan Reed grabbed his second career victory at Daytona in a crash filled race and Kyle Busch continued his dominance of the series with a win at Atlanta. In the newly minted NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series, Kurt Busch took an emotional win in the Daytona 500 for his first Cup restrictor plate win while Brad Keselowski stole the victory at Atlanta after the dominating driver of the race, Kevin Harvick, sped on pit road during his final stop. So far, I have enjoyed every moment of the season and I believe 2017 is going to be one of the best years for NASCAR in recent memory. However, there has been a lot of criticism of the new rules NASCAR has installed for the near future. Those rule changes include a five-minute clock for damaged vehicles to be repaired, an even lower downforce package for the top two series, and tighter penalty procedures across all three series. Of course, I left out the most prominent change for the year because that is the subject of my analysis today: NASCAR’s new stage points system.
  
        For those who don’t know the procedures of the stage system, let’s look at those first. During the offseason, NASCAR announced that races in all three series would be split into three stages. At the end of the first two stages, the top 10 would be awarded points from 10-1, respectively. In addition to that, the winner of a stage would earn a playoff point. Playoff points are the new version of bonus points in previous Chase years where each win in the regular season would guarantee three extra points to start the Chase. Now, the playoff points accumulate throughout the regular season and carry all the way through the playoffs except for Homestead where the highest finishing driver of the four championship contenders wins the title.  Finally, at the end of the race, regular race points would be awarded with the winner also receiving five playoff points. Ultimately, NASCAR’s reasoning for the new race and points format was to increase the importance level of the entire race. Rather than just being there at the end, NASCAR wants drivers to run near the front for the whole event. However, fans have had complaints about the new system. Of course, I agree that the points system isn’t exactly perfect. I have two fixes I would love to see for the system, but I truly believe it is a step in the right direction for NASCAR and I love the new stage points system.

Let me explain why I love NASCAR’s new stage format. The main reason is because every lap of the race now has increased meaning. In previous years, lap 85 at Atlanta was just lap 85. Maybe there would be a caution or a pass for thirteenth, but it was just lap 85. No one really cared and no one can tell you that Matt Kenseth led that same lap in 2016 at Atlanta before his race went downhill due a pit road penalty involving an engaged fuel can. However, in 2017, lap 85 ended with a green checkered flag after intense racing, a bevy of pit strategy calls, and drivers chasing the track to save their tires. All those things combined to make every lap important for determining how the stage would finish and how the race would ultimately finish. Lap 85 even gave Kevin Harvick ten championship points and a playoff point, which could be crucial later in the year. In addition to that, the racing is just truly better when the drivers are racing for those stage points. In the Daytona 500 two weeks ago, the end of stage 2, which is pictured before the introduction, was chaotic as drivers fought hard for those points. It was only lap 120 and I was on the edge of my seat watching that stage end to see if drivers would risk their cars for a few critical points in the first race of the season. I truly love that adrenaline rush throughout the race and it makes the overall racing product much better for casual and dedicated fans. Racing is what NASCAR should always strive to improve and the new stage system increases the intensity of competition. Finally, the new system adds additional points for drivers to obtain as the season progresses and those points will be critical for the playoff hopes of certain drivers. Just look at Ryan Newman. He always clinches his playoff spot thanks to points and by finishing sixth at the end of stage 1 in Atlanta, he now has five extra points at this time of the year that he wouldn’t have had in 2016. And that is thanks to NASCAR’s brand new stage format. When it gets later in the year, as well, those points will be harder fought for and fans will loving the racing. In terms of Ryan Newman, his need for points isn’t unique. To help supplement my argument about the increased amount of points for all three series and their importance, let’s look at the 2013 NASCAR Nationwide Series season.

Most of us remember the 2013 NASCAR Nationwide Series season. Kyle Busch and other Cup Series regulars dominated throughout the year, but the story at the end of season was the close points finish between Austin Dillon, Richard Childress’s grandson, and Sam Hornish Jr., the 2006 Indianapolis 500 champion. Dillon ended up taking the championship by a slim margin of three points, or three positions on track, over Hornish Jr. In addition to that, he made history by becoming the first driver in one of NASCAR’s top three series to win a title without winning a race. Because of that historic achievement, Dillon’s championship run has been heralded as the ultimate example of consistency. However, his finishes might have been consistent, but his races didn’t have to be consistent to win the championship. With NASCAR’s new stage system, the champion must have consistent finishes and consistent race runs throughout the year. To analyze the impact of stage points on the 2013 NASCAR Nationwide Series championship battle, take a look at this table with all thirty-three races recorded with stage finishes, points from each stage, and the total stage points for each race that both drivers earned. To determine where Dillon and Hornish Jr. finished at the end of each stage, I used the Lap-by-Lap Driver Chart available on Racing-reference.info. I also used the laps that have been released by NASCAR as the designated laps to end the stages in 2017 to award stages finishes and points. The stage ending laps for each race are recorded below the table. Before looking at it, though, I have two points to make about possible biases with these statistics.

Firstly, a couple of races from 2013 that I analyzed didn’t have the positions of each driver on the exact lap NASCAR has designated as the stage ending laps. In those cases, I used the lap that was recorded directly before the actual stage ending lap. For example, races at mile and a half tracks end stage 1 on lap 45, but only lap 40 was available to use so I used that lap as the stage finish to award points. For the most part, Dillon and Hornish Jr.’s position didn’t change by using a different lap, but I wanted that to be known before anyone does a fact check on my table. Finally, it is important to understand that I didn’t see if the race was under caution or see the circumstances surrounding the stage ending lap. I recorded their position on the specific lap to award points. Plus, neither driver had any knowledge of the system in 2013 so their position could be reflective of a green flag pit stop, hanging back in the field at restrictor plate tracks, an issue with their cars, or anything that can happen in an unpredictable NASCAR race. Because of that, each driver might have earned more points throughout the year if they knew the system was in place. However, these statistics are conclusive about who would have been the 2013 NASCAR Nationwide Series champion. Let’s take a look:

Austin Dillon and Sam Hornish Jr. 2013 NASCAR Nationwide Series Stage Points

Race

Track
 Stage 1 Finish/Points
   Dillon        Hornish Jr.
Stage 2 Finish/Points
Dillon            Hornish Jr.
Total Points
Dillon    Hornish Jr.
1
Daytona
18th/0
9th/2
27th/0
32nd/0
0
2
2
Phoenix
13th/0
16th/0
12th/0
15th/0
0
0
3
Las Vegas
5th/6
6th/5
2nd/9
4th/7
15
12
4
Bristol
11th/0
12th/0
13th/0
6th/5
0
5
5
Auto Club
6th/5
3rd/8
4th/7
2nd/9
12
17
6
Texas
8th/3
2nd/9
5th/6
9th/2
9
11
7
Richmond
15th/0
1st/10
12th/0
9th/2
0
12
8
Talladega
37th/0
2nd/9
35th/0
10th/1
0
10
9
Darlington
8th/3
4th/7
8th/3
7th/4
6
11
10
Charlotte
5th/6
3rd/8
3rd/8
5th/6
14
14
11
Dover
2nd/9
6th/5
6th/5
11th/0
14
5
12
Iowa
1st/10
2nd/9
1st/10
8th/3
20
12
13
Michigan
1st/10
4th/7
1st/10
4th/7
20
14
14
Road America
11th/0
4th/7
22nd/0
3rd/8
0
15
15
Kentucky
4th/7
2nd/9
7th/4
4th/7
11
16
16
Daytona
9th/2
1st/10
14th/0
1st/10
2
20
17
New Hampshire
10th/1
7th/4
8th/3
5th/6
4
10
18
Chicagoland
4th/7
1st/10
2nd/9
6th/5
16
15
19
Indianapolis
13th/0
3rd/8
13th/0
4th/7
0
15
20
Iowa
4th/7
5th/6
1st/10
3rd/8
17
14
21
Watkins Glen
17th/0
3rd/8
15th/0
2nd/9
0
17
22
Mid-Ohio
21st/0
3rd/8
14th/0
3rd/8
0
16
23
Bristol
5th/6
11th/0
5th/6
12th/0
12
0
24
Atlanta
2nd/9
8th/3
3rd/8
7th/4
17
7
25
Richmond
11th/0
6th/5
13th/0
9th/1
0
6
26
Chicagoland
5th/6
3rd/8
5th/6
3rd/8
12
16
27
Kentucky
10th/1
1st/10
1st/10
4th/7
11
17
28
Dover
8th/3
12th/0
17th/0
22nd/0
3
0
29
Kansas
25th/0
9th/1
2nd/9
21st/0
9
1
30
Charlotte
4th/7
1st/10
4th/7
1st/10
14
20
31
Texas
4th/7
2nd/9
12th/0
10th/1
7
10
32
Phoenix
5th/6
10th/1
5th/6
13th/0
12
1
33
Homestead
13th/0
2nd/9
16th/0
5th/6
0
15

Dillon's Total Stage Points: 257
Hornish Jr.'s Total Stage Points: 364

Stage Ending Laps:
Daytona: 30, 60
Phoenix: 60, 120
Las Vegas: 45, 90
Bristol: 85, 170
Auto Club: 35, 70
Texas: 45, 90
Richmond: 75, 150
Talladega: 25, 50
Darlington: 45, 90
Charlotte: 45, 90
Dover: 60, 120
Iowa: 60, 120
Michigan: 30, 60
Road America: 10, 20
Kentucky: 45, 90
Daytona: 30, 60
New Hampshire: 45, 90
Chicagoland: 45, 90
Indianapolis: 25, 50
Iowa: 60, 120
Watkins Glen: 20, 40
Mid-Ohio: 20, 40
Bristol: 85, 170
Atlanta: 40, 80
Richmond: 75, 150
Chicagoland: 45, 90
Kentucky: 45, 90
Dover: 90, 120
Kansas: 45, 90
Charlotte: 45, 90
Texas: 45, 90
Phoenix: 60, 120
Homestead: 45, 90

        Austin Dillon won the 2013 NNS championship by only three points, but with NASCAR’s newly mandated stage points system, Sam Hornish Jr. would have won the championship in 2013 by at least 104 points thanks to his large amount of stage points. Quite a difference, huh? With his very limited stage points throughout the season, Austin Dillon might not have even finished second in the championship battle and no one would have claimed he had a successful winless season. These results go to prove a huge point about why I love this system. It is one thing to be consistent in finishes throughout the year, but a real championship caliber driver must be consistent during the race as well. And even looking back on the 2013 NNS season, Sam Hornish Jr. was the better driver in my mind. I thought he earned the championship with his win at Las Vegas and, as NASCAR’s new system shows, his constant great runs throughout all of the races. Ultimately, his finishes didn’t reflect some of his great runs, which cost him the title. And the brand-new system fixes that problem. Just look at the Daytona 500. Kevin Harvick finished twenty second at the end of the race, but his stage 2 win gave him ten points and NASCAR rewarded him for running well. I love that. I mean, most NASCAR races are over 400 miles. It is a testament to the teams that drivers can dominate the race, even if they don’t win in the end. Of course, we want to give all the credit in the world to the driver that wins after 500 miles, but what about the guy who led 450 miles and finished thirty-fifth after he slammed the wall? Before 2017, he would have received practically nothing from the race. The team would have been disappointed that they couldn’t bring home the win after having the best car at the track. But, this year, the driver will be twenty points higher in the standings and the team will be compensated for running good in the first half of the race. A driver who dominates a race and doesn’t win shouldn’t go home empty handed in the championship fight. And I get the argument about participation trophies and other things like that. NASCAR, however, is a lot different. There are so many variables involved in our sport from mechanical failures to driver error. It can seem unbelievable that a driver can be given virtually no points for leading all day. The new stage system awards drivers for race consistency and consistency throughout the season, which is why I love the brand-new system.

        There are flaws with the new stage system. I don’t particularly like throwing the caution at the end of the stage or having two stages before the end of the race, but the positives outweigh the negatives for the new format. NASCAR has done a fantastic job making sure that every race matters more than it ever has before, in my opinion. Since all those points are available to help make the playoffs, drivers now race harder and crew chiefs make much bolder strategy calls than previous years. In addition to that, we are only two races into the new season. When the regular season begins to wind down, drivers on the verge of clinching a playoff spot on points will work even harder to gain those stage points before the craziness that always happens at Richmond, the regular season finale. Plus, drivers with wins in the bank will look to gain even more of those playoff points, which makes moving onto Homestead for the championship even easier. In my mind, NASCAR has discovered gold. This stage format will continue to make wins important while also making consistency just as important for the entire field. I’m excited for the rest of the 2017 NASCAR season and all the incredible moments the stage system creates not only this year, but in the future.

Works Cited

“2017 XFINITY Series Schedule.” Jayski's Silly Season Site, www.jayski.com/news/nxs/2017/story/_/page/2017-xfinity-schedule. 

“Comprehensive Racing Statistics.” Racing-Reference.info - Race Results and Driver Statistics for NASCAR and More!, racing-reference.info/.