Sunday, November 17, 2013

My Thoughts: Homestead

           Well, here we are. From Daytona in February to today in Homestead, 36 races will pass and one  champion will be crowned. At Daytona in February, 43 drivers had a chance to win the championship. At Richmond in September, it was widdled down to twelve drivers for the Chase for the title. After a controversy at Richmond, Martin Truex Jr. was taken out and Ryan Newman was added along with Jeff Gordon. That meant thirteen drivers had a chance for the title. After a grueling ten races, only three drivers remain with a mathematical shot: Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, and Kevin Harvick. Johnson, who is a five time champion in his own right, holds the points lead and needs to finish twenty third or better to take home his sixth title. Kenseth, who won the most races this year, struggled at Phoenix last week and needs a practical miracle to take his second title. Harvick, who won two races in the Chase, has been sitting just behind the leaders and sits in prime position to take the title if something crazy happens. Will Johnson hold on to win the title, will Kenseth have that miracle happen, or will Harvick pull a closer move and take his first title? I don't know how it will end, but I do have some thoughts and predictions for the final race of the 2013 season. Today's topics include a few drivers possibly making their final starts in NASCAR's highest rank, if I think Harvick and Kenseth have a chance, Jimmie Johnson possibly winning eight titles, my pick to win the race, and my pick to win the championship. It is the last edition of my thoughts this year and it is surely going to be a good show today.

1. Will Homestead Be the Final Race for Mark Martin, Bobby Labonte, Ken Schrader, and Jeff Burton in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series?
        Well, a few mainstays in the highest series of NASCAR could be embarking on their final races. Mark Martin, Bobby Labonte, Ken Schrader, and Jeff Burton all do not have a ride next year in the Sprint Cup Series. Will Homestead be the final race for these drivers? Well, we will go one by one and talk about the options. First is Mark Martin. Martin announced a week ago that he would not drive again in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Well, I believe he will race again. The one reason he will race again is because he has never captured victory in the Daytona 500. All he would have to do is make a one off in this race and he could possible grab the victory. That is the only reason I could see him return. The second driver is Bobby Labonte. Labonte was a mainstay with JTG-Daugherty Racing for the past few years, but A.J. Allmendinger took the ride from Labonte for 2014. I also believe that Labonte will run another race in the highest level of the sport. He main reason is he has a lot left in the tank. I mean, he took that sub-par ride with JTG-Daugherty to a few good finishes in the highest series. Plus, he might return to a lower series to win and that would be just as good. The third driver is Ken Schrader. Schrader announced that this would be his last start in the highest series of NASCAR. I am sure that Schrader is serious about this. For one, he probably would have trouble finding a higher up ride at his age. It is sad, but he is getting a bit older and people would rather have a rookie or a younger driver jump in. But it is not over for Schrader. He will continue to run and win some ARCA races and he might come back to race at Eldora in a truck next year. The final driver who might be making his final start in NASCAR's highest series is Jeff Burton. Burton has been a mainstay with Richard Childress Racing the past few years and now he is without a plan for next season. I find it highly unlikely that this will be his final start. The main reason is that he is still competitive in the sport. He can still compete up front and race hard for the lead. With the exception of Schrader, I think that the rest of these drivers will find a way to race again at the highest level of the sport and race competitively again.

2. Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth: Do They Have a Chance For the Title?
        Even with Jimmie Johnson's huge lead in the points, there are still two drivers mathematically left to win the title: Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick. Kenseth is second in points and twenty eight points back while Harvick is third in points and thirty four points back. This leads into my question: are these two guys still left in the battle for the title? Well, Johnson is really dominant and he will not falter unless something crazy happens, but don't count these two out. For one, look at Jimmie Johnson's average finish at the last two races at Homestead. He has an average finish of thirty fourth in the last two races at Homestead including a thirty second place finish last year. Statistics don't decide a champion for sure, but you can't overlook those finishes. I know that stuff happens in races, but today is a race and it can still happen. The second and final reason I think these two guys can jump back in the battle is just their records this year. Kenseth has seven wins thus far this year including two to begin the Chase. Kevin Harvick has four including two thus far in the Chase. These two have great track records this year especially at mile and a half tracks, which is what Homestead is. These records this year could just decide the championship, but these two will have to outlast Jimmie Johnson coming down the stretch.

3. Is Jimmie Johnson Going to Win Eight Championships? If He Does, Will He Be the Greatest Ever?
        Speaking off Jimmie Johnson taking the title, if he does outlast Kenseth and Harvick today, he will take his sixth championship. That means he is one away from Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt and he is two away from becoming the first driver to win eight titles. But, will he win eight championships? I have to believe he will. I mean, it only took him nine full years to take five championships and if he wins his sixth tonight, it would only take him twelve to get his sixth title. That means he would only need two years, at the least, to take eight championships and he is only thirty eight years old. Now, if he goes a few years without a title, it might take him a while to get to eight, but I believe he will. This also brings up another question: will he be the greatest ever if he wins eight? In terms of the knowledge of a person that does not watch NASCAR all the time, he will be. To me, he will never be the greatest ever. When I have kids, I am going to tell them that Richard Petty is the greatest of all time. I don't care if Jimmie Johnson wins ten titles. It does not matter to me because he doesn't have the wins or the humbleness of Petty. Johnson is humble, but he is not Petty humble. That is my opinion and I am sure some Johnson fans don't like me saying that. Personally, I don't care. You can't change that about me. Nonetheless, I will regard Johnson with a lot of respect for his ability to lead this sport in a great way and I applaud him for that.

4. My Pick to Win the Race
         Last week, Kevin Harvick took the win at Phoenix after Carl Edwards ran out of gas. Last time at Homestead, Jeff Gordon walked away with the victory while Brad Keselowski held the trophy high as the 2012 champion. Today, a race will be run and a winner will definitely be crowned, but most importantly, a champion will be crowned. But let us focus on who will have a chance at winning today. I think Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano have a good chance at taking the victory today. Notice Jimmie Johnson isn't there. I think Johnson is going to lay back today and just try to finish in the top 10 and not worry about the victory, but the race could change that.

5. My Pick to Win the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship
        Well, here it is. After 35 races from California in the west to Delaware and Florida in the east, only one race remains to crown a champion. Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, and Kevin Harvick remain the only three drivers left to take the title. If you asked me at the beginning of the season who would win the championship, I would have said Kasey Kahne or Jimmie Johnson. At the beginning of the Chase, I would have said Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, or Kasey Kahne. Now, all that does not matter with only three drivers left. I think with all the circumstances around the race at Homestead I am going to go with Jimmie Johnson to take the title. Johnson has been the best driver of this generation and I think he will continue his legacy at Homestead today. Well, that will do it folks. It is almost time for the offseason after one final race. I hope you guys enjoyed reading through my thoughts this year and if you have any differing opinions on the issues at hand, let me know in the comments down below. I will continue to write for you guys through the end of 2013 and when the season starts in 2014. I hope today's race is a great end to a great season and until we meet again.





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