Saturday, July 5, 2014

My Thoughts: 2014 Daytona #2

         When the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series was at Daytona in February, the situation was different compared to tonight. It was the annual Daytona 500 for the Cup drivers and it was the first race of the 2014 season. Each driver was filled with hope and promise for the upcoming season and each driver wanted to get 2014 started off with a bang. Sixteen races after the Daytona 500, mindsets have changed. Ten drivers have already qualified for the Chase and only a few drivers seem to be on the verge of making the Chase as well. After tonight's race, the season will be halfway and only eight races will remain before we decide the sixteen drivers who will be battling for the championship in the final ten race Chase. Tonight's race is the final wild card before the Chase. A driver can come out of nowhere, win tonight, and be in the Chase after the Richmond race. It could be any number of drivers, but also consider some of the drivers who haven't won yet this year and want to race into the Chase. Drivers like Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Kasey Kahne, Greg Biffle, and Jamie McMurray have shown their abilities on restrictor plate tracks before and they will all be looking for their first win of 2014 and a Chase spot. But don't count out the underdogs. Drivers like David Ragan, David Gilliland, Landon Cassill, Reed Sorenson, and others could come out of nowhere to win the race. Plus, some drivers like Aric Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Danica Patrick, and Austin Dillon aren't underdogs, but they could steal an upset win. Tonight's race at Daytona is going to be unpredictable and that is just how we like it. With that introduction, I have a few topics to discuss with you guys. Topics include a discussion of victory lane injuries, a discussion of Tony Stewart, a discussion of Dale Earnhardt Jr., a discussion of those underdog drivers, and, of course, my pick to win the race. Well, let us jump into these topics as we prepare for a fireworks show at Daytona.

1. Brad Keselowski Injures Hand in Victory Lane at Kentucky: Should NASCAR and the Teams Be Concerned?
        Last Saturday night, Brad Keselowski utterly dominated the event at Kentucky. He pulled into victory lane for the typical celebration and it would turn out to be a bizarre celebration by the end of the night. As Keselowski and his team were going to shoot champagne around victory lane, Keselowski cut his hand wide open a bottle. He began to bleed and he ran towards the infield care center. He received four stitches and his hand was taped, but the stitches were removed in Daytona earlier on Friday. It was a scary situation and one that I want to talk about here. Here is my question. Should NASCAR and the teams be concerned about victory lane celebrations? I would say they should be pretty concerned. Let me say this before I begin. I believe every driver should be able to celebrate in victory lane after winning and they deserve to celebrate a win, but there needs to be some concern every time. I mean, I don't remember somebody ever getting hurt while celebrating a race win. I'm sure it has happened, but I don't remember it. That means, to me, that NASCAR and all the teams in victory lane should be very cautious. The situation at Kentucky didn't turn out too bad, but it could have. Keselowski could have injured himself bad enough to need surgery or need work done to his hand. That would have not been good for Team Penske and Keselowski in hopes of winning a championship. Still, it is a very rare thing. I don't think that will happen again for a while, but we need some more concern in victory lane and I hope NASCAR looks into this.

2. Tony Stewart: Does He Reach Victory Lane at One of His Favorite Tracks?
        Before I begin this topic, I want to give you guys some very compelling statistics. Stewart has won four of the last nine summer races at Daytona with two back-to-back wins in 2005 and 2006. Stewart has won seven races at Daytona in the Nationwide Series including four straight from 2008 to 2011. I can continue going, but it seems like these statistics speak for themselves and there is one single main idea: Tony Stewart is great at Daytona when it isn't the Daytona 500. He has never won the Daytona 500, but he has won in just about everything else. Stewart hasn't won yet this year, but here is my question as he looks for that first win. Will he reach victory lane at one of his favorite tracks? Of course, he has a chance like anybody, but he has a way better shot than most of the drivers. The main reason is the fact that Stewart is a good driver in the draft and he has good teammates in the field. Tony Stewart's wins at Daytona speak for themselves. He knows the draft well and he is a good driver to have near you during any part of a restrictor plate race. Plus, he has three teammates in Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Danica Patrick who are pretty good racers at the restrictor plate tracks. He can help them in the race and they can help him take the win. The final reason is the summer stretch we are in. I have mentioned this before, but the summer time is when Tony Stewart starts to click off wins and good finishes. Today's race will be no different and he will be a contender for probably the entire event. Hopefully, Tony Stewart runs well and he is able to move into the Chase.

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Can He Sweep at Daytona in 2014?
        One of the major stories heading into this weekend's race was about Dale Earnhardt Jr. possibly sweeping the two races at Daytona in 2014. If you recall, Earnhardt outlasted a rain delay during the day and he was able to go out and win the race during the night in the Daytona 500. He battled hard all night and he deserved to win the race in the end. Since then, Earnhardt has proven he is a contender this year with another win at Pocono just a couple weeks ago and he is sitting second in the points due to his consistency. I have just a single question for Earnhardt and his team heading into the race. Can he win and sweep at Daytona in 2014? I certainly think he can. The main reason is how confident he has been acting recently. Earnhardt has not finished outside the top ten since Charlotte in May and he has looked very fast every week. In fact, some weeks, he has looked almost unstoppable. At Pocono a couple weeks ago, Earnhardt looked great and he ended up taking the win. A final reason he can win the race is his ability in the draft. Earnhardt is another driver who can go out in the draft and almost see the air as he is flying around the track. He has always been a great driver on the superspeedways and Daytona is probably his favorite. Plus, he is starting seventh and he will definitely be an early factor with all of his teammates close to him. If you don't think Earnhardt can win this race at Daytona, check your predictions again because he will be a factor for sure.

4. Underdog Drivers: Who Has the Best Chance to Win the Race?
         I mentioned in the introduction about underdog drivers and how they will have a chance to win this race at Daytona. We always talk about how the draft is the ultimate equalizer and this will be the case for drivers who don't have as much money in the bank. Along with that, I want to give you guys a driver who I think is the underdog with the best chance to win the event. There are a good many to choose from like David Gilliland, David Ragan, Landon Cassill, Terry Labonte, Bobby Labonte, Josh Wise, Michael McDowell, Reed Sorenson, Michael Annett, and a good many others along with that. For the Aaron's 499 at Talladega, I picked Michael McDowell to have the best chance and he ran well, but wrecked during the event. Today, I thought about going with David Gilliland. He pushed teammate, David Ragan, to the win at Talladega last year and he is on the pole for this Daytona event, but I am going with a different driver. I am going with Landon Cassill as the underdog driver that I think can win the event. Why would I choose him? Well, listen to this. Cassill finished twelfth this year in the Daytona 500 and he finished a career best eleventh at Talladega in May. Cassill has been one of the least talked about underdogs in superspeedway races this year, but he has been legitimate at all those tracks this year and in the past few years. I would expect Cassill to be a factor all race long and he will certainly be there when the checkered flag is close to waving.

5. My Pick to Win
        Daytona is always known as a wild card and that has been the case many times in the past. Just look at the winners in 2011. Trevor Bayne came out of pretty much nowhere in 2011 to win the Daytona 500 just a day after his twentieth birthday. David Ragan, who was snubbed out of that Daytona 500 win after a penalty, used help from his teammate, Matt Kenseth, to win the 2011 Coke Zero 400 for the first time. Plus, the track holds some great finishes. Just think of the 2007 Daytona 500 where Kevin Harvick barely edged Mark Martin to win his first 500. It was an extremely close finish and one of the most memorable ones in recent memory. Also, in 2007, Jamie McMurray barely edged Kyle Busch at the line to win the summer race at Daytona. Let us summarize this. The finish in the annual Independence Day weekend race at Daytona will be great and it could hold an underdog winner after four hundred miles of Daytona racing. Now, I have to decide on a driver who will win the event. Like I usual do at restrictor plate races, I can't choose a winner because it is so tough to choose a guy to win the event. Everybody has a chance in this race and it will certainly be one of the best races of the season. Unfortunately, the race was rained out tonight and it will be moved to tomorrow morning. Depending on rain and other things, I don't know if I will be able to write about it or not. We will have to see, but it will definitely be a great race either way. I am excited for it and I am definitely not ready to wait for it. Well, that is all for me tonight and until we meet again.





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