My Thoughts: 2014 Michigan #2

        For years, Daytona and Talladega have been viewed as the fastest and most fear inducing tracks in NASCAR, but a new track has taken hold of both of those titles: Michigan International Speedway. On Friday in qualifying, Jeff Gordon turned an unrestricted lap at over 206 miles per hour, which is within six miles per hour of Bill Elliott's 1987 lap turned at Talladega. The cars are blazing fast for sure and maybe a little on the edge of speed. In early Saturday morning practice, Ryan Truex broke loose in turn 2 and sailed up the track towards the wall. He slammed it hard and came to a stop with heavy damage. He walked to the ambulance, but he reported pain in his collarbone and he complained of a headache. The hit left him with a concussion and he will have to sit out Sunday's race due to the possible problems related to his injury. Many accidents like this have occurred at Michigan, but the cars still continue to gain speed with the passing years. Still, Michigan is a track where the races are definitely worth watching. We have seen some instant classics here in the past few years. To the cheers of millions of fans around the world, Dale Earnhardt Jr. crossed the finish line in 2012 for his first win in the series since 2008, which also came at Michigan. Earlier this year, a lot of teams played the strategy card, but Jimmie Johnson turned out to have the best strategy and he was able to hold on to win his first race at Michigan in his storied career. One key for all Michigan races: fuel strategy. Fuel strategy is key at Michigan due to the many long green flag runs, but consider this. The last race had eight cautions with a long green flag run late. That run will eventually decide the winner of the event and give another driver a Michigan victory. With that introduction, let us jump into these topics for today's Michigan race. Topics include a discussion of Kurt Busch, a discussion of a driver filling in for Tony Stewart, a discussion of last week's underdog winner, a discussion of the upcoming Chase, and, of course, my pick to win the annual fall race at MIS. Well, let us get started today as we prepare for the twenty third race of the year in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.

1. Kurt Busch: Has His Team Finally Turned Their Fortunes Around?
        When Kurt Busch won at Martinsville in March, it should have guaranteed him a spot in the Chase, but his new team was struggling in the early half of the year. He fell all the way to twenty eighth in the points at Charlotte, but since then, his team has turned it around. In those ten races, Busch has a worst finish of twenty eighth at Indianapolis, where he had a great car except for getting caught a lap down by strategy. He has also climbed to twenty first in the points and he looks like a Chase contender finally. I have just one question for Busch and his team. Have they finally turned their freshman season around and headed towards a great Chase? I certainly believe they have. The main reason is the fact that Busch has been running better and qualifying even better throughout the year. This has proved to be very important for the team because good starting spots mean good finishes. Plus, good runs allow Busch to finish up higher and higher every single week. Another significant reason is continued confidence for Busch and his team. Around the halfway mark of the season, each race track the series went to was a repeat of a race earlier in the season like today's race at Michigan. That means Busch's new crew chief for this year, Daniel Knost, has a notebook for most of the tracks they are returning to. That will ensure Busch has a nice set-up and his car is  tuned to run well throughout the conclusion of the regular season and the Chase. Kurt Busch has been under the radar for most of the season this year, but he looks to be improving heading to the Chase and this could be his year to run well in the Chase.

2. Jeff Burton Filling in For Tony Stewart: How Will He Do For the Team?
        Last Saturday night, Tony Stewart struck Kevin Ward Jr. with his sprint car after Ward jumped out of his car to show his displeasure with Stewart. The accident left the racing world reeling and Stewart still hasn't completely recovered from the trauma of the tragedy. He is going to sit out his second straight race after missing last week's event at Watkins Glen. Jeff Burton was tapped to drive the car for this weekend and he will most likely be the driver on standby for the rest of the year in case Stewart doesn't want to race. I have just one question for Jeff Burton. How will he help the team in possibly a one off race for Stewart-Haas Racing? Let's be honest here. Burton was only decided as the driver of the car on Wednesday and he had to get used to the car throughout practice on Friday and Saturday, but I am expecting some good things out of him. He qualified in twenty seventh and will have to fight his way to the front, but he has a fast race car for sure. Give him about thirty to fifty laps to feel out the car at Michigan and he will be able to move his way through the field to contend. I discussed at New Hampshire that it could be his last race in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, but it looks like Michigan will be his final race in the series. If he does well today, though, I expect he will get another opportunity and could do well in this fast Chevrolet.

3. A.J. Allmendinger: Will He Perform Well in the Chase?
         In 2012, A.J. Allmendinger's career took an unexpected turn at Daytona in July. He was suspended from NASCAR due to a failed drug test and forced to attend the road to recovery program. He had a great ride with Penske Racing, but he was immediately fired and searching for a ride. Quickly, he moved through the program and returned to NASCAR in the Nationwide Series with Roger Penske again. He ran two of the road course races in 2013 and won both of them in style. He returned part time to the Cup Series at the end of 2013 with JTG-Daugherty Racing and moved full time to the team in 2014. It looked like the perfect opportunity for Allmendinger and he took advantage of it. He lead the most laps at Sonoma in June and came to the second road course at Watkins Glen with a ton of confidence. He took that confidence to a win and is now in the Chase for the first time in his young NASCAR career. After that recent turn of events for Allmendinger, I have just one question for him and his team. How will they perform in the Chase after winning the Watkins Glen race? Honestly, I had them wrote off if they happened to win a race this year, but I have changed my mind. This team isn't a team that runs at the back most weeks during the year. They have an alliance with Richard Childress Racing and they have a driver in Allmendinger who is no slouch when it comes to racing. They have proven they can race at any track on the schedule along with being there late when it counts. Don't expect them to run the table and take the title, but don't expect them to lay down after the first three events of the Chase and get eliminated.

4. Four Races to Go: Which Winless Drivers Have the Best Chance to Win and Make the Chase?
        It seems like just yesterday we were discussing the brand new Chase for this year and the beginning of the season with the Daytona 500, but we are now only four races until all the talk stops and the Chase really begins. Twelve drivers have won races up until now, which means four spots remain for winners or drivers who make it in on points in the last four races. There are still several drivers like Kasey Kahne, Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Kyle Larson, and others are without a win and looking to make the Chase on points. Still, though, they would love to win and guarantee a Chase spot. I have just one question for some of these winless drivers. Which winless drivers have the best chance to win and make the Chase? I think Greg Biffle and Kasey Kahne are the two drivers who have the best chance to win in these final four races. Biffle is on this list because we are at Michigan today, where Biffle is quite possibly the best to ever race at the track. He can easily take the win today and he will certainly be a factor in the event. Kasey Kahne is on this list because these next four tracks are all good tracks for him. He has won at all four tracks at least once including his first career win at Richmond in 2005. He is always a factor when we head to these tracks and I think he could take a win to a Chase berth. The other winless drivers this year have a chance to win as well, but I feel like Biffle and Kahne have the best chance to take the victory. 

5. My Pick to Win
        Michigan is a track where drivers are either really good there or really bad there. Jimmie Johnson is a good example of this fact. Johnson is one of the best to ever race in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, but he didn't win a race at Michigan until earlier this year in June. Some others have won a ton of races at Michigan like Greg Biffle and Dale Earnhardt Jr. These drivers look to me like they will be contenders today, but there are several others who have a chance to win today at Michigan. My picks for today's race are Joey Logano, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Greg Biffle, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Jimmie Johnson. Some underdog picks to consider are Ryan Newman, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Jamie McMurray, and Paul Menard. Michigan is a very fast track where restarts and strategy are going to help decide the winner in the end. I am excited to see how the race unfolds. I won't be writing about it, but I will be watching to see who the next NASCAR Sprint Cup Series winner is. Still, I hope today's race is another fantastic one for 2014. Well, that is all for me today and until we meet again. 





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