On Sunday, Austin Dillon powered to the finish line in NASCAR Overtime to grab the victory in the 60th running of the Daytona 500. Using a last lap push from the #43 of Darrell Wallace Jr., Dillon managed to clear Denny Hamlin for second as the field exited turn 2. The driver of the #3 set his sights on the leader, Aric Almirola, as they powered down the backstretch.
The #10 of Almirola gave the #3 an aggressive block near the end of the back straightaway, hoping to maintain the lead and take the win. Dillon bumped the leader, which sent him spinning up the race track and hard into the outside wall entering turn 3. The #3 escaped without damage and cruised to the checkered flag to grab his second career victory in dramatic fashion.
Controversial or not, Austin Dillon’s emotional win puts him in elite company as a Daytona 500 champion. His name will be synonymous with greatness at Daytona International Speedway for years to come. The victory was a statistical filled accomplishment for Dillon, Richard Childress Racing, and the legendary number he drives.
First, the win was the second of his young career after a triumph at Charlotte Motor Speedway in the Coke 600 last May. Now, the North Carolina driver can claim his first two victories as crown jewel events in NASCAR. Only a few drivers can claim two crown jewel wins across their careers, much less in their first two Cup wins.
Also, Wallace Jr. brought his #43 Chevrolet Camaro home in second after a hard-fought battle to the line with Hamlin. Fans of NASCAR history recognized the importance of the famous #3 and #43 finishing first and second, but it has been a long time since that happened. Sunday’s 1-2 finish for those numbers was the first time it occurred since April 1987 when Dale Earnhardt crossed the finish line first ahead of Richard Petty in the Valleydale Meats 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Plus, Dillon’s win came on the seventeenth anniversary of Dale Earnhardt’s tragic death while driving the #3 in the 2001 Daytona 500. In the two Daytona 500’s held on February 18th since Earnhardt’s death, Richard Childress Racing has visited victory lane both times. In 2007, Kevin Harvick beat Mark Martin to the checkered flag in a photo finish for his first 500 victory in the #29.
Finally, Dillon’s victory came twenty years and three days after Earnhardt’s only Daytona 500 win in 1998. The Intimidator’s victory had ended his twenty years of frustration trying to capture the win in the Great American Race. And as a seven-year-old, Austin Dillon stood in victory lane celebrating the 1998 victory and followed it up twenty years later standing in the same spot holding his own Daytona 500 trophy.
The most interesting statistic from Dillon’s improbable victory Sunday has been rarely mentioned in race recaps. The North Carolina driver ended up leading just the last lap in the 60th Daytona 500 after completing 207 total laps. Last May, when he grabbed his first checkered flag in the Coca-Cola 600, he led only the last two laps of 400 completed circuits after Jimmie Johnson ran out of fuel while leading. In the 607 laps completed during his two race wins, Dillon has only led three laps.
In terms of a percentage, he has only led 0.5% of the laps completed in his two victories thus far. That exceptionally low number poses an interesting statistical question.
Of all the drivers who have won two or more races in NASCAR’s highest series, does Austin Dillon hold the historical record for the lowest percentage of laps led in his first two series wins? It is a fascinating question and one that required a lot of research. But I did just that and we will see together that Dillon is the record holder for the lowest percentage of laps led in his first two career Cup victories.
First, let me explain my methods for coming to this determination. 127 drivers, including Dillon, have won at least two races in NASCAR Cup competition. I researched all 127 drivers and discovered how many laps they led during their first two wins, how many laps were completed during those two races, and the overall percentage of laps led in those victories for each competitor. The data is listed for all 127 drivers at the bottom of this article.
After sorting through all those drivers, I determined that Austin Dillon’s lap led percentage in his first two NASCAR Cup wins is historically low compared to the first two victories of the 126 other drivers in history with at least two wins. Of course, there are a couple of drivers whose percentages are close to Dillon’s, which we will talk about.
Also, two drivers have achieved a feat that I thought was impossible when I began this research. Let’s do some analysis of the highs and lows in terms of laps led percentage in a driver’s first two career victories, starting with the drivers closest to Dillon.
The driver with the lap led percentage in their first two career victories closest to Dillon is Lloyd Dane. Born in Missouri, Dane won three championships in what is now the NASCAR K&N Pro Series West. Also, he won four Cup races, all of which were run on the west coast. His first win came in a 100-lap race at the California State Fairgrounds in July 1956 and he followed it up two months later with a victory in a 250-lap race at Portland Speedway in Oregon. However, his lap led percentage in those two events is up for debate.
Dane undoubtedly led three of the 250 laps in his second career victory. On the other hand, his laps led in his first victory are unknown on every statistical website available for NASCAR race records. Because of that, I decided to use an assumption to see if his percentage could be lower than Dillon’s.
I assumed he led one lap in his first victory, which put him at four laps led in 350 laps completed during those two races. With that assumption, his lap led percentage is 1.1%. He is listed at #49 on my list below. Even with that assumption, Dane’s percentage is 120% higher than Dillon’s accurate measurement. In fact, Dane’s percentage could be much higher than 1.1%. Ultimately, Dillon’s percentage is historically low compared to the rest of the 126 drivers who have two or more victories even without knowledge of Dane’s accurate total.
The driver with the undisputable closest percentage to Dillon is a former Cup Series champion: Brad Keselowski. In the 2009 Aaron’s 499, controversial contact in the Talladega trioval between Keselowski and Carl Edwards allowed the underdog Michigan driver to capture the victory after leading only one of the 188 laps. Two years later, while piloting the #2 Dodge for Roger Penske, Keselowski won after leading nine of 267 laps in the STP 400 at Kansas Speedway.
In total, he led ten of 455 laps in his first two victories, which is a small 2.2%. Despite being a very low number, his lap led percentage is 340% higher than Austin Dillon’s. Without a doubt, compared to the current 126 drivers, the 2014 NASCAR Cup Series Rookie of the Year has the record for the lowest lap led percentage in his first two wins.
While delving through statistics to prove that Dillon holds the record on the low side of the laps led percentage, I discovered a record on the other extreme. Two of the 127 drivers led every single lap in their first two career victories: Glen Wood and Jim Reed.
Wood, one of the legendary Wood Brothers who have been fixtures in NASCAR since its inception, won four career Cup races and they all came at Bowman Gray Stadium in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. In the first two wins, he led all 200 laps of the races and put his lap led percentage at 100%.
Jim Reed, a New York born Cup Series driver, won seven career races in NASCAR’s highest division. In his first win during the 1958 season, he led all 187 laps at Old Bridge Stadium in New Jersey to capture the victory after rain ended the event 13 laps short of its scheduled distance. A month later, he led all 150 laps at Starkey Speedway in Virginia to capture his second career victory with a 100.0% lap led percentage in both races.
With the amount of cautions, unpredictable strategy calls, and laps run in today’s NASCAR, it will be very unlikely to see a driver lead every lap of a race. Brad Keselowski nearly accomplished the feat in 2014 at Richmond, but he missed it by 17 laps.
It would be extremely unlikely for a driver to lead every lap in their first two career Cup wins, much less in two races throughout their careers. Because of that, Jim Reed and Glen Wood will hold the historically high record of leading 100.0% of the laps in their first two Cup wins for the foreseeable future.
Winning in NASCAR’s highest division only requires a driver to lead one lap. Richard Petty once told Ryan McGee, an ESPN reporter, “I don't know how many laps I led, all I know is that I led the last one 200 times.”
The King is absolutely right. It only takes one lap to take a driver from the winless category to the historic list of winners in NASCAR’s Cup Series. Austin Dillon discovered this fact. His three laps led in his victories is only one number higher than his career win total thus far. But that doesn’t matter because he is a winner.
The same can be said for Wood and Reed. They might have led every lap in their first two wins, but the most important part for them was taking home the trophy.
Dillon’s record could be beat in the next few years. The emphasis of NASCAR on late-race drama could put a driver in position twice to lead the last lap and grab their first two series victories. For right now, though, the North Carolina driver’s record lap led percentage of 0.5% in his first two wins is safe and will be an interesting statistic to follow in the next few years as young, winning drivers enter the sport.
(More Stats Down Below!)
1. Marcos Ambrose: 29 of 182 = 15.9%
2. John Andretti: 117 of 660 = 17.7%
3. Johnny Beauchamp: 101 of 433 = 23.3%
4. Red Byron: 103 of 240 = 42.9%
5. Derrike Cope: 98 of 700 = 14.0%
6. Ricky Craven: 95 of 793 = 12.0%
7. Ray Elder: 114 of 344 = 33.1%
8. James Hylton: 266 of 688 = 38.7%
9. Bobby Johns: 655 of 834 = 78.5%
10. Joe Lee Johnson: 131 of 700 = 18.7%
11. Al Keller: 212 of 250 = 84.8%
12. Elmo Langley: 271 of 600 = 45.2%
13. Danny Letner: 71 of 497 = 8.2%
14. Juan Pablo Montoya:81 of 200 = 40.5%
*15. Billy Myers: 60 of 450 = 13.3%
16. Jimmy Pardue: 138 of 450 = 30.7%
17. Steve Park: 220 of 483 = 45.5%
18. Tom Pistone: 53 of 350 = 15.1%
19. Marvin Porter: 51 of 295 = 17.3%
20. David Ragan: 19 of 362 = 5.2%
21. David Reutimann: 57 of 494 = 11.5%
22. Gober Sosebee: 212 of 354 = 59.9%
23. Jimmy Spencer: 22 of 348 = 6.3%
24. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: 31 of 354 = 8.8%
25. Emanuel Zervakis: 386 of 700 = 55.1%
26. Austin Dillon: 3 of 607 = 0.5%
27. Brian Vickers: 29 of 388 = 7.5%
28. Gwyn Staley: 105 of 300 = 35.0%
29. Elliott Sadler: 118 of 834 = 14.1%
30. Frank Mundy: 281 of 400 = 70.3%
31. Dick Linder: 263 of 395 = 66.6%
32. Robby Gordon: 98 of 410 = 23.9%
33. Bill Blair: 183 of 300 = 61.0%
34. Glen Wood: 400 of 400 = 100.0%
35. Michael Waltrip: 126 of 360 = 35.0 %
36. Billy Wade: 91 of 250 = 36.4%
37. Nelson Stacy: 87 of 583 = 14.9%
38. Morgan Shepherd: 300 of 828 = 36.2%
39. Ken Schrader: 48 of 522 = 9.2%
40. Eddie Pagan: 242 of 391 = 61.9%
41. Joe Nemechek: 268 of 693 = 38.7%
42. Hershel McGriff: 270 of 450 = 60.0%
43. Parnelli Jones: 7 of 180 = 3.9%
44. Pete Hamilton: 32 of 388 = 8.2%
45. Bobby Hamilton: 77 of 705 = 10.9%
46. Eddie Gray: 44 of 290 = 15.1%
47. Charlie Glotzbach: 128 of 384 = 33.3%
48. Bob Flock: 220 of 400 = 55.0%
*49. Lloyd Dane: 4 of 350 = 1.1%
50. Ralph Moody: 39 of 367 = 10.6%
51. Jeremy Mayfield: 148 of 450 = 32.9%
52. Dave Marcis: 203 of 900 = 22.6%
53. Tiny Lund: 110 of 324 = 33.9%
54. Kyle Larson: 151 of 402 = 37.6%
55. Alan Kulwicki: 192 of 804 = 23.9%
56. Dan Gurney: 262 of 370 = 70.8%
57. Ward Burton: 275 of 686 = 40.1%
58. Marshall Teague: 212 of 239 = 88.7%
59. Jim Reed: 337 of 337 = 100.0%
60. Jamie McMurray: 99 of 494 = 20.0%
61. A.J. Foyt: 44 of 320 = 13.8%
62. Darel Dieringer: 236 of 448 = 52.7%
63. Kyle Petty: 39 of 800 = 4.9%
64. Clint Bowyer: 235 of 710 = 33.1%
65. Bob Welborn: 509 of 650 = 78.3%
66. Cotton Owens: 135 of 239 = 56.5%
67. Paul Goldsmith: 360 of 550 = 65.5%
68. Sterling Marlin: 135 of 400 = 33.8%
69. Donnie Allison: 315 of 834 = 37.8%
70. Tim Richmond: 102 of 214 = 47.7%
71. Dick Rathman: 170 of 350 = 48.6%
72. LeeRoy Yarbrough: 78 of 399 = 19.5%
73. Dick Hutcherson: 391 of 400 = 97.8%
74. Martin Truex Jr.: 267 of 510 = 52.4%
75. Ernie Irvan: 149 of 700 = 21.3%
76. Curtis Turner: 119 of 350 = 34.0%
*77. Marvin Panch: 42 of 260 = 16.2%
78. Ryan Newman: 220 of 541 = 40.7%
79. Joey Logano: 59 of 433 = 13.6%
80. Kasey Kahne: 327 of 725 = 45.1%
81. Harry Gant: 191 of 834 = 22.9%
82. Neil Bonnett: 346 of 600 = 57.7%
83. Geoff Bodine: 382 of 920 = 41.5%
84. Fonty Flock: 227 of 295 = 76.9%
85. Greg Biffle: 94 of 360 = 26.1%
86. Buddy Baker: 258 of 589 = 43.8%
87. Davey Allison: 313 of 678 = 46.2%
88. Speedy Thompson: 49 of 360 = 13.6%
89. Jack Smith: 300 of 600 = 50.0%
90. Benny Parsons: 362 of 781 = 46.4%
91. Bobby Labonte: 143 of 600 = 23.8%
92. Jeff Burton: 159 of 634 = 25.1%
93. Terry Labonte: 130 of 859 = 15.1%
94. Ricky Rudd: 437 of 595 = 73.4%
95. Brad Keselowski: 10 of 455 = 2.2%
96. Joe Weatherly: 160 of 450 = 35.6%
97. Jim Paschal: 266 of 400 = 66.5%
98. Fred Lorenzen: 100 of 368 = 27.2%
99. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 137 of 734 = 18.7%
100. Rex White: 132 of 350 = 37.7%
101. Carl Edwards: 55 of 526 = 10.5%
102. Kurt Busch: 200 of 1,000 =20.0%
103. Denny Hamlin: 234 of 400 = 58.5%
104. Dale Jarrett: 20 of 400 = 5.0%
105. Fireball Roberts: 244 of 350 = 69.7%
106. Bobby Isaac: 187 of 240 = 77.9%
107. Kevin Harvick: 131 of 592 = 22.1%
108. Matt Kenseth: 184 of 793 = 23.2%
109. Tim Flock: 301 of 350 = 86.0%
110. Mark Martin: 117 of 892 = 13.1%
111. Kyle Busch: 158 of 566 = 27.9%
112. Bill Elliott: 69 of 319 = 21.6%
113. Buck Baker: 124 of 350 = 35.4%
114. Herb Thomas: 314 of 400 = 78.5%
115. Tony Stewart: 483 of 712 = 67.8%
116. Junior Johnson: 286 of 372 = 76.9%
117. Ned Jarrett: 70 of 400 = 17.5%
118. Lee Petty: 239 of 375 = 63.7%
119. Rusty Wallace: 345 of 1,000 =34.5%
120. Dale Earnhardt: 213 of 828 = 25.7%
121. Cale Yarborough: 319 of 534 = 59.7%
122. Jimmie Johnson: 250 of 650 = 38.5%
123. Darrell Waltrip: 272 of 920 = 29.6%
124. Bobby Allison: 246 of 600 = 41.0%
125. Jeff Gordon: 109 of 560 = 19.5%
126. David Pearson: 236 of 500 = 47.2%
127. Richard Petty: 153 of 700 = 21.9%
Notes:
(*15: Billy Myers’ lap led total for his second career victory at Norfolk Speedway in 1965 is unknown. By assuming he led one of the 250 laps combined with his 59 laps led in his first victory, Myers has a lap led percentage of 13.3% in his first two victories. His percentage couldn’t be lower than Dillon’s due to his 59 laps led in his first win.)
(*49: Lloyd Dane’s lap led total for his first career victory at the California State Fairgrounds in 1956 is unknown. By assuming he led one of the 100 laps combined with his 3 laps led in his second victory, Dane has a lap led percentage of 1.1% in his first two victories. This means that his percentage could not be lower than Dillon’s since he might have led more laps in his first win.)
(*77: Marvin Panch’s lap led total for his first career victory at Montgomery Speedway in 1956 is unknown. By assuming he led one of the 200 laps combined with his 40 laps led in his first victory, Panch has a lap led percentage of 16.2% in his first two victories. His percentage couldn’t be lower than Dillon’s due to his 41 laps led in his second victory.)
Credits:
-My Own Statistical Research
-Statistics Resource:
racing-reference.info/
-Richard Petty Quote from Ryan McGee’s June 29, 2017 Article:
www.espn.com/racing/nascar/story/_/id/19768942/nascar-80-reasons-love-richard-petty-80th-birthday
-Images:
www.ptc.com/en/cad-software-blog/customer-success-dillon-wins-coca-cola-600
www.abcnews.go.com/Sports/austin-dillon-wins-daytona-500-decades-dale-earnhardt/story?id=53188027
No comments:
Post a Comment