Sunday, March 9, 2014

My Thoughts: 2014 Las Vegas

        Las Vegas has always been a town known for gambling. Typically, people flock from all places of the world to gamble in town on slot machines and other things, but today they are gambling on something different: NASCAR. NASCAR's highest series makes the annual Spring trip to the track and we don't really know much this early in the year. We know Dale Earnhardt Jr. won at Daytona and Kevin Harvick won at Phoenix in dominating fashion. We haven't reached the point to decide who will contend for the title, but today is the day. Las Vegas is a mile and a half track and those tracks are the meat of the Sprint Cup Series schedule. Just based on performances today, it will certainly be clear who will be a contender for the title this year. It definitely was last year. Matt Kenseth took the win and he ended up being the main contender for the title with Jimmie Johnson. No, Las Vegas isn't the ultimate tell all for the season, but you can't put those statistics down. I might be building up this race more than it needs to be, but facts in the end are facts. Today, we have a vast amount of discussion topics to talk about. Topics include a discussion of Brad Keselowski, a discussion of Kevin Harvick, a discussion of Jimmie Johnson, a discussion of the track and race today, and the main part of my thoughts every week: my pick to win. Well, let us go ahead and jump into this edition of my thoughts and prepare for the first mile and a half race of the young season.

1. Brad Keselowski: Is He Back?
         I've talked about Brad Keselowski a good bit recently, but he is definitely somebody worth talking about. If you recall, Keselowski ran well at Daytona in the first race of the season and he finished in the top five at Phoenix after starting on the pole. This success early in the season raises one question in my mind. Is Brad Keselowski back to his championship winning ways? I believe he is completely back to that form. For one, he has had success at a part of the season he wasn't known to have success in. Think back to his 2012 championship winning season. It was a good many races into the season before we talked about him having a chance to win a race. It has looked like he had a chance to win the first two races this season already. It just looks like success is coming easy for the team this year. Finally, Keselowski is really fast in qualifying. If there was one thing the number two struggled with last year it was qualifying. It seemed like they just lacked power and speed throughout the entire season, honestly. This year, though, they have already started off great. We have already talked about the pole he won at Phoenix and he will start second today. Usually, when you start up front, you end up finishing in the front. Of course, that doesn't count mechanical failures and crazy incidents, but it is a pretty known fact about front starters finishing up front. All in all, Brad Keselowski looks to be back to form and Jimmie Johnson and the rest of the Cup contenders need to watch out.

2. Kevin Harvick: Is He the Matt Kenseth of 2014?
         This topic has been something that has been building since the announcement was made during the 2013 season. If you recall, Kevin Harvick left Richard Childress Racing, the only team he had been with, to drive for Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014. The move seemed like a beautiful one to me and it has raised one question to me. Is Kevin Harvick the 2014 version of Matt Kenseth. I, honestly, believe this season will be the case. First, we will talk about the comparison. Last year, Matt Kenseth ran his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing after being a mainstay at Roush Fenway Racing and Kenseth's season was very impressive. He took home seven wins along with coming close to winning his second championship. Kevin Harvick seems to be on the same exact track. He made a team change and has already taken his first win of the season last week at Phoenix. Plus, he looks extremely fast thus far and his pairing with crew chief, Rodney Childers, looks very formidable. The only thing I have to see Harvick do now is run well on the mile and a half tracks. If he does that, he could take home the championship at the end of the season. But we will have to wait and see at the end of the season who stands tall at Homestead.

3. Jimmie Johnson: Where Has He Been This Year?
        This topic may come as a surprise to some of you guys, but it is kind of important thus far this year. Where has Jimmie Johnson been hiding so far this season? If you recall, Johnson has only managed a fifth and sixth place finish this year in the first two races. Now, it has only been two races and there is no reason to freak out if you are a Johnson fan, but something has been different this year. He seems off, for lack of a better term. He didn't even lead a lap last week at Phoenix, but that was because Harvick completely dominated. Still, this time last year, Johnson had a win and was at the top of the points standings. It is something to think about, but I have a feeling about Jimmie Johnson this year. He seems to be laying back and waiting for his opportunity. It is something we haven't seen from Johnson ever. He is always about heading to the front and winning the race, but he might have realized that isn't the best strategy. It is hard for me to believe he would change his mentality when he took all six of his championships with that strategy. It also seems like he has switched roles with Kevin Harvick. Harvick has become the dominator of the races while Johnson has moved into the closer role. Let me repeat. We are only two races in to this year and things can change. We will have to wait and see as the season progresses to see if Jimmie Johnson has really taken a new mentality to his winning ways.

4. First Race at a Mile and a Half Track This Season; Will This Race Decide the Championship Contenders?
        We have finally reached the point of the season where everything is going to matter. The meat of the championship schedule is composed of mile and a half tracks and the champion will be decided from races like the one we have at Las Vegas today. The key to this is: who will be those championship contenders? Of course, you have to consider Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has been a contender for years and only a miracle will keep him away this year. Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin, when he was healthy, were stellar last year on the mile and a half tracks for Joe Gibbs and they seem to be contenders this year. Kasey Kahne and Dale Earnhardt Jr. were extremely good last season at the mile and a half tracks. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano look great this season and I believe they will be contenders this year. Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Carl Edwards, and Jamie McMurray also look like great drivers to watch as this year progresses. Plus, we have some underdogs like A.J. Allmendinger, Casey Mears, and others to look at as we head to the mile and a half tracks throughout the year. Those are a lot of drivers who look like they have a chance for the Chase this year and it is sure to be a tough battle throughout the year until we reach Richmond.

5. My Pick to Win
         We have now reached the point where I can talk about my picks to win. In case you don't feel the winner of this race matters, then listen to this. Matt Kenseth took the win last year at Vegas and he took a second place championship finish. Carl Edwards took the win in 2011 and finished second in the championship standings because of a tie breaker with Tony Stewart. I hate to say this again, but the statistics don't lie. Today, the winner of this race will be one of the very formidable drivers as we head throughout the Sprint Cup Series season. Today, I am not going to give you guys a distinct winner, but I will give you a few drivers to look at. Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, and Kyle Busch have a good chance in today's race, in my opinion. Hopefully, my picks will be pretty close today as the series heads to Vegas. Unfortunately, I won't be able to write about today's race, but I will definitely be writing about the races at Bristol next weekend. Well, that is it for me and until we meet again.




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