Sunday, August 31, 2014

My Thoughts: 2014 Atlanta

         We only have two races remaining before the start of the 2014 Chase as sixteen drivers will look to win the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship. Right now, twelve drivers are already qualified for the Chase with a good many other drivers fighting for the final four spots. Those drivers include Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Kasey Kahne, Kyle Larson, and a host of others. One key between these drivers: no wins this year. If any of these drivers find a way to victory lane in the next two races, they would automatically be in the Chase. That also means at least two drivers are going to make the Chase on points and that could lead to a lot of action in these races as well. We have discussed the prospective Chase field, but we have to talk about the penultimate race of the regular season tonight. The series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the next to last regular season race. The track is a bumpy and bad fast mile and a half in Georgia with a long history of fantastic finishes and crashes. It is the more typical race track on the Cup schedule compared to the three fourths of a mile Richmond International Raceway, which is the final regular season race of the season next week. It will be a test for all the drivers in the field especially considering the close finishes here in the past. Dale Earnhardt Sr. barely beat Bobby Labonte to the line in 2000 for his penultimate win in NASCAR, Kevin Harvick held off Jeff Gordon by just a little bit to win in just his third start in the wake of Dale Earnhardt's death in 2001, Carl Edwards managed to hold off a fast charging Jimmie Johnson late to win his first career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race in 2005, and Jimmie Johnson had a hard fought battle with Jeff Gordon in 2011, but Johnson took home the trophy at Atlanta. With so much on the line tonight, we can expect a great finish and, possibly, a driver win and make the Chase with just one race remaining. With that introduction, I have a few topics I want to discuss with you guys. Topics include a driver returning to the series after a three race absence, a discussion of the 2015 NASCAR schedule, a discussion of a driver making his first start in the Cup Series, a discussion of Kevin Harvick, and a my pick to win today's event. Well, let us jump into these topics as we wait for a Sunday night race in Georgia.

1. Tony Stewart Returns at Atlanta: How Will He Perform After Three Weeks Off?
        The events of August 9, 2014 still roll through my mind. Tony Stewart and Kevin Ward Jr. had an accident in Canandaigua, New York. Ward jumped from his sprint car after the accident and ran at Stewart's car due to being his anger at the accident. Stewart couldn't avoid him and Ward went flying after Stewart made contact with him. He was dead instantly and the world lost a twenty year old race car driver. Stewart was reeling from that terrible tragedy and he missed the races at Watkins Glen, Michigan, and Bristol due to the pain he was feeling. Well, tonight at Atlanta, things are going to be different: Smoke will rise. Stewart is returning to the track at Atlanta with the opportunity to still make the Chase after missing three races. I'm sure this tragedy will forever affect Stewart's life, but tonight is his opportunity to begin the healing process. I have just one question for the three time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion as he returns. How will he perform after being out of the car for three straight weeks? He will perform pretty well at Atlanta. The main reason I feel this way is how fast he has been this entire weekend. He qualified twelfth in qualifying on Friday night and he has been extremely consistent in every single practice session. Granted, he has missed three weeks of competition and it will certainly be an adjustment considering the bumpiness and difficulty of AMS, but Stewart is going to come back strong and I am going to support him fully as he jumps behind the wheel of a car again.

2. 2015 NASCAR Schedule Released: Which Changes Seem Most Important?
        On Tuesday, NASCAR released the 2015 schedule for all three of its major series. The Nationwide and Truck schedules seemed to be pretty much the same, but the Cup Series schedule had a few major shake ups. The first major change was with the race at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Next year, the race will be the second race of the year instead of being on Labor Day weekend like it has been recently. Darlington will leave its April date from this year and slide into its traditional Labor Day weekend date. Bristol will transition from a March race into a mid-April race due to the weather and Phoenix will slot into Bristol's previous date. The final big change was with the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona in July. Instead of being run on a Saturday night, it will now be run on a Sunday. These are all the major changes for the schedule next year and I have just one question. Which change is the most important one for the future? Darlington moving to Labor Day weekend is by far the biggest change and the most important one. For years, Darlington had the annual Southern 500 on Labor Day weekend and it was a huge part of NASCAR history. In 2004, all that changed when Darlington moved to a single date heading into 2005. Now, they have the traditional date back and it will be an even better race with that in mind. Another reason this is the biggest change is due to the proximity of the Darlington race to the Chase. The race will be the penultimate round of the regular season before the final one at Richmond. That means an always chaotic race at Darlington will be even more chaotic with the thought of a Chase berth on the line for all the drivers. Next year, I will be building up this Darlington race for months and I'm sure it won't disappoint along with the other schedule changes.

3. Ty Dillon Making His NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Debut: How Will He Perform?
        In 2011, Ty Dillon burst onto the racing scene with a fantastic year in the ARCA Racing Series. He won a good many races and took the title over some great ARCA regulars. In 2012, he transitioned to the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series where he raced for two years. He won a couple races, but he was unable to take a Truck title. After two solid Truck years, he made the move to the NASCAR Nationwide Series for this year. He has already taken a win at Indianapolis and he has looked consistent the entire year, but the biggest race of his racing career will be tonight's event. The youngest Dillon boy will make his Cup debut driving for his grandfather with his brother, Austin, as his teammate. It will be a great moment for the young driver and I have just one question for him. How will he perform in his first Cup start? He will perform pretty good for his first start. The main reason is his past success at Atlanta. His first NASCAR Camping World Truck Series win came at Atlanta in 2012 and he started on the pole while dominating the event. Plus, Dillon is very good on the mile and a half tracks. This year in the NASCAR Nationwide Series, he has scored the most points on mile and a half tracks compared to the other drivers. This makes Atlanta look like a great place to make his first start and Dillon will do a great job. He starts twenty ninth and he will have to battle to move up in the race, but he will do a good job and make Richard Childress and his team proud.

4. Kevin Harvick: Does He Have the Momentum Heading Into the Chase?
        For a good many weeks, it seemed Jeff Gordon had the momentum heading into the Chase, but that has seemed to change. Kevin Harvick seems to have taken the momentum heading into the Chase and he looks very fast. It seemed like at the beginning of this year, Harvick would be the driver to beat. He left the only team he had known, Richard Childress Racing, after 2013 and he headed to the super team at Stewart-Haas Racing. He immediately proved he was going to run well with a win in the second race of the year at Phoenix. He continued the momentum, but he seemed to cool off slightly as we hit the summer months. He hasn’t won since Darlington, but that doesn't mean anything for Harvick. Since the Michigan race in June, he has finished second three different times and he has won four poles including the last two poles at Bristol and Atlanta. I have just one question for Harvick. Does he have the momentum heading into the Chase? He certainly has the momentum. If you look at last year's results early in the Chase, Harvick won at Kansas and ran very consistently throughout the Chase. He has been on a mean streak this year heading into the Chase and I feel like he will have another stellar Chase in 2014. Plus, he hasn't had too many bad finishes this year and he will be a championship contender. I would not be surprised if we are calling Kevin Harvick the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion after this year.

5. My Pick to Win
        I have said this a lot this year, but Atlanta is certainly a driver's race track. During the early part of the race, drivers will be running fast on the bottom, but the groove will transition to the high side as the race nears a close. That will benefit drivers like Kyle Larson, Kasey Kahne, Tony Stewart, and others who love to run the high line. The key for the race early on will be making sure each team makes the right adjustment as the track transitions to pure night. The driver who makes the best adjustments will eventually win the race and the driver who plays the best strategy could also take the victory. In the end, this race will decide a lot of things and we could see a winless driver take a win to guarantee a Chase spot. I have several picks for tonight's race at Atlanta. My picks include Kasey Kahne, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Newman, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth. Some underdog picks for tonight’s race are Martin Truex Jr., Tony Stewart, and Austin Dillon. I am very excited for tonight's race. After the fantastic finish for today's NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race at Canadian Tire Motorsports Park, I feel like tonight's race will have an even better finish to it. I won't be writing about it, but I will be watching as it all unfolds in Atlanta tonight. It will be a fantastic race and one that will change the picture of the Chase. Well, that is all for me and until we meet again.





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