Saturday, June 28, 2014

My Thoughts: 2014 Kentucky

         Kentucky Speedway is the most recent track added to the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule. In 2011, it was added to the schedule and since then, it has been a key component of the summer stretch for the entire field of drivers. Before that, though, Kentucky wasn't a strange track to most of the field. The track was home to many tests for all teams and it provided help for intermediate tracks all over the circuit. Still, Kentucky is a track that is still tough for most of the field. The track is one of the bumpiest on the schedule and it provides a lot of problems for drivers hoping for the right set-up. In fact, listen to these stories. On Wednesday, the NASCAR Nationwide Series came to the track for an open test session. Ryan Blaney, who was running a rare Nationwide race for Team Penske, came in after a run with a nose bleed due to the rough conditions of the speedway. On Friday, Tony Stewart reported that he had a headache early in the practice session due to the bumps all around the track. Based on these stories, it is easy to tell that the bumps will help decide who wins tonight's race at Kentucky. Finally, we have seen some great racing at Kentucky in only three events. Look at last year's event. The race was rained out from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon, but that didn't affect the drivers. Jimmie Johnson went out and dominated the event while drivers like Brad Keselowski and Greg Biffle had wrecks on track. In the late laps, Johnson spun on a restart and he ended up falling back in the field. This left Matt Kenseth out front and Kenseth was able to hold off Jamie McMurray to win his first race at Kentucky. Just from those statistics, it is obvious Kentucky will have a good race tonight. I have a good many topics I want to discuss before this event tonight. Topics include a discussion of Matt Kenseth, a discussion of the entrants for tonight's race, a discussion of the Sprint Cup rookies, a discussion of the speedway, and, of course, my pick to win this event. Let us go ahead and jump into these topics for tonight's race.

1. The Home Depot Not Returning to Sponsor Matt Kenseth: Should That Be Cause For Concern?
        Matt Kenseth had a stellar season last year with seven wins and a close second place finish in the championship, but this year hasn't held any wins. Still, he is up in the points standings and he has been running consistently all year, but his team took a blow this week. The Home Depot, which has been a sponsor for Joe Gibbs Racing number twenty team since Tony Stewart jumped to the Cup Series in 1999, will not sponsor Kenseth next season at JGR. If you recall, Kenseth joined the team in 2013 and The Home Depot was a key sponsor behind his run at the title a year ago. I have a question for his team in the wake of this news from The Home Depot. Should they be concerned about next season? I would say they should be concerned. Listen to this first. I don't know the actual cause for The Home Depot leaving or if Dollar General will step up sponsorship, but I'm going to go without that knowledge. The main reason I think they should be concerned is because of how long The Home Depot has been with the team. I find it hard to believe that a sponsor that was so good for a team would want to leave so abruptly. That bothers me because Kenseth has been running so well. I think they need a good reason to defend leaving the team. A final reason is Kenseth needs stability to run well. Having a sponsor on a long contract is key to being able to run well. They need to be sure a sponsor will be there for the full season next year so that Kenseth will not have to worry about it. I hope another sponsor steps up for Kenseth and we see him run really well next season with another added sponsor.

2. 42 Cars Running Kentucky Race In Cup Series: Should NASCAR Be Worried?
        Recently, with the bad economy and the money needed to run a NASCAR team, the amount of drivers attempting every race in NASCAR has dropped slightly, but each race for the Cup Series has resulted in the field being full of forty three cars. Tonight's race will only have forty two cars on the grid and that is the first time the Cup field hasn't been filled with forty three cars in as long as I can remember. Here is my question for NASCAR and the Cup Series leaders. Should they be worried about the lack of a field being filled at Kentucky? They really, really should be. The main reason is the fact that they are in the second year of a brand new vehicle. Last year, it wouldn't have been hard to believe if a field didn't get filled because 2013 was the first year for the sixth generation car in NASCAR. This year, though, they are in the second year of the car and it seems like they should be readily available to race. Well, it looks like teams are having trouble securing cars to race from week to week. A final reason NASCAR should be concerned is because the cars and sponsorships aren't getting any cheaper. In today's world, it takes a lot of money to run a whole race, much less a whole season. That price has also been increasing from year to year and it is definitely not getting cheaper. Honestly, I wish NASCAR could improve the prices to run a race, but it seems like only the economy or a change in the price of the parts could help add cars to the field.

3. Is This the Race For a Cup Rookie to Win?
        I discussed in the introduction about how bumpy and rough Kentucky is. It is a track where you have to have the car dialed in to run well. Plus, listen to these statistics. In three races at Kentucky, the winners have been Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Matt Kenseth. Between those three drivers are two NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championships and seventy one Sprint Cup Series wins, but I am going in a different direction with this topic. I see the rookies having a good shot tonight. Why would that be a possibly in my mind? The main reason is how good Austin Dillon, Kyle Larson, and others are at Kentucky. Just look at Austin Dillon's credentials here. He won both races in the NASCAR Nationwide Series in 2012 and he ran extremely well there last season as well. Kyle Larson has two top tens at the track with one coming in a truck and one in the Nationwide Series. Justin Allgaier and the other rookie drivers have also run good there. A final reason is the lack of Cup races that have been held there. What that means is that drivers in the Cup Series who are really good like Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Tony Stewart really don't have a lot of race experience there. That means that a guy like Austin Dillon or Kyle Larson can go out there with their experience in the lower series of NASCAR and win the race. I think they will be drivers to watch in tonight's race and they could possibly steal a win at Kentucky.

4. Kentucky Speedway: Should It Be Paved?
         Again, we are here to talk about the bumps at Kentucky. The track is extremely rough and the asphalt on the track is fourteen years old and it was last paved in 2000. That makes it one of the oldest surfaces in the sport and a track that is very rough on equipment. I have asked this about other tracks throughout this season, but I am here to ask it again. Does Kentucky Speedway need to be paved? No, it does not need to be paved anytime soon. The main reason is the fact that the bumps just add character to the track. I think an old surface like Kentucky is a great thing for the sport. It makes the race way more exciting and it makes the strategy a huge part in the end of the event. Plus, we have just been racing at the track for three years. Once the drivers get used to heading there, they won't have to worry about the bumps and they will be flying around the track. I don't see it as a problem. A final reason it shouldn't be paved is because the surface still looks to be in good shape. If you look at the track, there aren't any pieces coming up like at some of the other tracks we have visited. That means it doesn't need to be paved because everything is still holding up. All in all, old track surfaces in NASCAR are a great thing and I hope they leave Kentucky alone for the time being.

5. My Pick to Win
        One thing I have failed to mention thus far is that Kentucky is a mile and a half track. These tracks are the meat of the Cup schedule and they aren't hard to predict as far as a winner, in my opinion. There are always the same drivers who run great when we head to the intermediate tracks. Tonight's race will be a challenge, though. Each driver can not fall behind in strategy and they have to guarantee their car will run well even with the transition from day to night. Looking at prior trends for this race and the recent mile and a half races, I have a few guys who I think could win tonight's event. Possible winners include Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, and Tony Stewart. Some upset drivers who could win tonight include Paul Menard, Brian Vickers, Ryan Newman, and Kyle Larson. It should be a great race tonight for all of the Cup drivers and I am going to write about it for you guys. I am excited to see another night race and it should be a good show on this bumpy track. Well, that is all for me and until we meet again.




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