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1. Nine Different Winners in Nine Races at Sonoma: Will Today's Winner Be Ten?
When Tony Stewart won at Sonoma in 2005, a theme was created and it has lasted for nine races and nine years. Since that day, no driver has repeated a win at Sonoma. Jeff Gordon, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kyle Busch, Kasey Kahne, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer, and Martin Truex Jr. followed Stewart's win with their own road course win to add to the list of winners. I have one question concerning this topic. Will today's winner be the tenth straight different winner at Sonoma? I, honestly, think today's winner will be the tenth different winner. Just listen to these statistics real fast. Only one of the drivers who starts in the top ten today has won a race during the past nine years at Sonoma and that is Kurt Busch. That right there should tell you that a different driver will win this afternoon's event. Along with that, we are seeing some fast drivers in the race who have never won at Sonoma before. Look at one Jamie McMurray. McMurray took his second straight pole at Sonoma with a track record speed. He has been extremely fast and he is going to be a driver who could win the race. Also, look at A.J. Allmendinger. Allmendinger is one of the best NASCAR drivers on a road course and he qualified second and practiced fast all afternoon long. Finally, look at Kyle Larson. He won the K&N race at Sonoma yesterday and whenever he wins a lower series race the day before, he runs extremely well in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race the next day. He will be a driver to watch all day, but don't count out the guys who have won at Sonoma in the past nine years. Most of those drivers have been fast all weekend and they will be contenders, but they will have to fight off the guys looking to keep the streak going. All in all, strategy will decide today's race and a driver without a Sonoma win could take the trophy.
2. Marcos Ambrose: Does He Have to Win Today?
One driver who is always a threat during the road course races is Marcos Ambrose. Since joining the Cup Series full time in 2009, Ambrose has run well at Watkins Glen and Sonoma including two Watkins Glen wins since then, but he has come up short at Sonoma several times. One of those times was 2010 when he was leading, but stopped on track late in the event and was pushed back in the field. Here is my question for Ambrose as he heads on track for the road course race at Sonoma. Is today's race a must win race for his Chase chances? I, honestly, don't believe it is. Let's face it. Ambrose is not the best driver on oval tracks and it will be tough for him to win at one of those and jump into the Chase for the title. That is where the road courses come into play. Ambrose can win at either one of those and he needs to. Nonetheless, I don't consider today a must win for Ambrose. Watkins Glen is typically the track where Ambrose can rattle off a win. If he does win today at Sonoma, though, he won't have to worry about winning at the Glen, but if he needs to, he most certainly can. Honestly, I feel like Ambrose will be a player all afternoon, but his team must master the strategy to come close to winning the race.
3. Justin Allgaier: Underdog Driver of the Year?
Coming into this year, the only people who had really heard of Justin Allgaier were people who watched the NASCAR Nationwide Series on a week to week basis. Now, since he jumped to the Cup Series to start his rookie year, he has become a key part of the rookie battle. In fact, he has surprised even me with how well he has done behind the wheel of a HScott Motorsports car that isn't as good as other rookie contenders cars like Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson. Here is my question about Allgaier and his team. Is he the underdog rookie/driver of the year? I believe he is both of those things. Just look at Michigan a week ago. I was sitting there about the middle of the race and he was running just outside the top ten. He was flying fast and he ended up finishing the race in sixteenth position and I was extremely impressed, but it wasn't the first time he had done that. It seems like all year he has rode on the cusp of the top ten and he was flying fast. One thing I can add to it is the fact that he is beating the people he should be beating. He is going out and beating the guys he should be and, occasionally, he beats a guy who should be up front. In fact, listen to this. Last week, he finished ahead of Greg Biffle, who has won four races in his career at Michigan. That right there should prove that Allgaier is running very well this season. All in all, expect Allgaier to be in the series for years to come and run very well in every car he jumps in.
4. Kyle Larson: Will He Win More Than One Race This Year?
Another rookie who has thoroughly impressed me this year is Kyle Larson. Larson came in to the season looking like the second best rookie, but he has become the best rookie with three top fives to his name on the season. The only thing he really hasn't done this year is win a race behind the wheel of his Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet. A lot has been made about Larson's move to the Cup Series from his days racing dirt to quickly moving up to asphalt, but it hasn't affected him. Even though he hasn't won a race yet, I have a question for him. Will he win more than one Cup race this season? I firmly believe he will. Some of you make think that is a preposterous question considering Larson hasn't won a single race yet in Cup, but let's face it. Larson is going to win a race this season in Cup. I have no doubts because he has run well at every track this season. The question of whether he will win another race is a different story. I mean, I feel like he will win two races this year. He has been so fast at big tracks with a lot of speed like Michigan a week ago. We head to Michigan again in about a month and I think he could very well take a win there. Plus, he is extremely impressive at Bristol and we head there in about a month as well. Let me end this topic with this. Larson is a great driver and Chip Ganassi has his cars running very well. Larson will become a household name and he will have some trophies by the end of this year.
5. My Pick to Win
Sonoma Raceway can be considered a wild card track sort of like Daytona or Talladega. Drivers without the usual chance to win the event will be a factor all afternoon. Of course, there is no drafting, there is more than four turns at Sonoma, and there isn't as much real estate, but expect the action to be packed and drivers looking to make moves towards the front and the win in the end. I have a good many drivers who could be eventual winners in this race today and, of course, some of them will be very surprising picks. Still, there will be some usual culprits up front throughout the race. Good picks for today's showdown on the road course include A.J. Allmendinger, Jamie McMurray, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Larson, Brian Vickers, Paul Menard, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Kurt Busch. Some underdog drivers to look at that could possibly make their way to the front include Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski. It seems weird to consider them underdogs, but nothing normal ever happens at Sonoma. I won't be writing about today's race, but I will be watching and cheering on another great road course event for NASCAR. Well, that is all for me and until we meet again.
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