Sunday, June 15, 2014

My Thoughts: 2014 Michigan

         Averaging two hundred miles per hour around a two mile track with four turns is blazing fast. I call that white of your eyes fast. Even though that speed sounds unlikely at that type of track, it is completely plausible because that is the speed we are seeing at Michigan International Speedway this year. In fact, we are seeing some of the fastest laps turned in the history of NASCAR. Yesterday in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series qualifying, Kevin Harvick turned a lap at 35.198 seconds, which is 204.557 miles per hour. That qualifying speed was the fastest turned in NASCAR since Bill Elliott ran 212.809 miles per hour at Talladega in 1987. The lap was blazing fast for Harvick and it seems like speeds are picking up year after year at Michigan. Along with the fast speeds at Michigan, we have seen a lot of great finishes and great races in the past. Think back to the August race last season. Mark Martin was testing his fuel mileage in the late laps and he was leading. Martin was hoping to last to the finish, but he ran out of gas with three laps to go. This handed Joey Logano the lead and Logano was able to hold onto the lead to win the race. Another example of a great Michigan race was 2008. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was leading while trying to save fuel with Kasey Kahne running second and good on fuel. A caution waved late and the race would end under caution, but Junior had to make it back to the line at speed. Kahne helped him a little bit, but Junior was enough to the good to hold onto the lead and take the win. One similar point between these two finishes: fuel strategy. Most Michigan races end up being fuel conservation races and fuel strategy will be key in this afternoon's event. With that introduction, I have a few topics I want to discuss with you guys. Topics include a sponsor extending with a Chase contending driver, a team looking to continue a nice streak, a driver returning to the Cup Series, a manufacturer's dominance at Michigan, and, of course, my pick to win. Let us not waste anymore time and jump into these interesting topics. 

1. Farmers Insurance Extends With Kasey Kahne Until 2017: What Does This Mean For His Team?
        A great piece of news came out for Hendrick Motorsports and Kasey Kahne this week. Hendrick announced that Farmers Insurance had extended with driver, Kasey Kahne, until the year 2017. If you recall, Kahne made the move to Hendrick Motorsports for the 2012 season and Farmers came along as the primary sponsor for most of the races. Since 2012, Farmers Insurance has been a key part of the number five program and Kasey Kahne has taken four wins in his time with Hendrick. This year, though, has been a struggle for Kahne. He only has one single top five, but he now has a sponsor for a good many years to come. Here is my question for Kahne and his team. What does this sponsorship extension mean for his team? I believe this sponsorship extension means a lot to Kahne and his team. The main reason is that Kahne is really not the safest driver at Hendrick. That means that Kahne is really the odd man out if Rick Hendrick needs an open spot for another driver. With this sponsor extension for Kahne, I think this keeps him in the ride for a few more years. A final reason is that Kahne needs some stable footing to run great races this year. I think one reason Kahne hasn't been running well this year is the fact that he didn't know if he would have a sponsor for the years to come. This caused him to be more cautious in some races and this left him in bad situations in many races. I think Kahne's struggles will end thanks to this sponsor extension and we will see him in victory lane very soon.

2. Hendrick Motorsports: Will the Streak Continue?
        If you haven't noticed this streak, you will find out about it in these next few sentences. Currently, Hendrick Motorsports is on a four points paying race win streak thanks to Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s win at Pocono last week. Jeff Gordon took the win at Kansas a month ago, Jimmie Johnson won three weeks ago at Charlotte in the 600, Johnson won at Dover two weeks ago, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. followed these three wins up with his first win at Pocono. Here is the question I have for the entire Hendrick team. Will the streak continue to five today? I, honestly, think it will. First, let us discuss Kasey Kahne. Kahne is the only driver who hasn't won during that streak and look at his credentials at Michigan. He won in 2006 from the pole and last summer, he was leading when an abrupt tire failure left him in the wall with a destroyed race car. Plus, he has been fast the entire weekend and he looks like a major player today in the Irish Hills of Michigan. Second, let us look at Jeff Gordon. Gordon started this streak and he has looked fast the entire weekend thus far. A good many people have pointed to him as a possible winner in this race and his fast car will certainly help. Third, let us look at Jimmie Johnson. Johnson, surprisingly, has never won at Michigan. Still, that doesn't mean anything. Last year, he was running well when he had a tire failure on track like his teammate, Kahne. Plus, he has run well there for a good many years, but he doesn't have the wins to show for it. He has been fast this entire weekend and it could be his race. Finally, let us look at Dale Earnhardt Jr. Earnhardt won at Michigan in 2008 and 2012 and he was fast in the summer last year, but he lost an engine while leading the event. Earnhardt has also been extremely fast this weekend and he could be a threat for the win. If he does win, it would be the first time in his career that he would win repeat races. All I have to say is this: watch out for Hendrick Motorsports today because all four drivers could win this afternoon's event.

3. Juan Pablo Montoya Making His Return to the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series: My Expectations
        Calm down, everybody that freaked out when they read this headline. Juan Pablo Montoya is not returning full time to the Cup Series, but he is running two races this year for Team Penske in the series. The first race for him is today at Michigan behind the wheel of the SKF Ford Fusion for Penske. If you recall, Montoya drove for Chip Ganassi Racing for about six years before leaving the team at the end of 2013 to return to the IndyCar Series. Montoya made that move with Roger Penske and now, Penske is giving him the opportunity to return to the Cup Series for a couple of times. Here is my question. How will Montoya do in those two races back in a stock car? I expect him to run decent in both races. The main reason is the fact that he will race at two of his better tracks in a stock car. Today's race at Michigan fits his style because he loves to hold his foot in the gas and go. He will definitely have the opportunity to do that in the Irish Hills of Michigan. The July race at Indianapolis will fit his style because he has always been a great driver at Indy and he has almost taken a couple of NASCAR wins there. A final reason is the team he is running with. Team Penske has been stellar this season. Brad Keselowski has qualified well and has a win while Joey Logano has qualified well and he has two wins on the season. Montoya should be able to assimilate himself into this group and prove that he still has the ability to drive a stock car well. I don't see Juan Pablo Montoya winning either of these races in 2014, but I do see him having great runs behind the wheel of some fast Penske Ford Fusions.

4. Ford: Will They Win Four Straight Cup Races at Michigan?
         One theme when we head to Michigan every year is the competition between manufacturers. Ford and Chevrolet are headquartered in Detroit and they look to beat each other every year while Toyota looks to beat both of the others on their home turf. Recently, Ford has been the dominant manufacturer of the bunch. Greg Biffle and Joey Logano have combined to win the last three races at Michigan for Ford with Biffle taking two of the wins. Here is my question for the Ford bunch today. Will they be able to take four straight Cup wins at Michigan? I don't see it happening today for the Ford bunch. The main reason is that they will really have to compete with the Chevrolet drivers today. It seems like all the Chevrolet drivers have been extremely fast all weekend and it will definitely be tough  to take a win away from them especially with Kevin Harvick running as fast as he is. A final reason is that there aren't as many Ford drivers in today's race. There are so many Chevrolet drivers and Toyota drivers in the race today, but not as many Ford drivers. Greg Biffle, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Aric Almirola, and Marcos Ambrose are the only Ford drivers who have a shot today. But don't count out these Ford drivers today. Greg Biffle usually doesn't show any speed throughout the weekend, but he turns it up on race day. He will be a contender today and he could very well take the win. It will be an uphill battle for the Ford drivers today, but expect them to be contenders at Michigan today.

5. My Pick to Win
        I've said many times throughout this edition of my thoughts, but it bears repeating. The speeds today at Michigan are going to be blazing fast. One thing that happens when the speed picks up is engines begin to fail. That will be a problem all afternoon and it will definitely take out some drivers who are contenders in the race. Today, the winner of the race will be a driver who has been around all afternoon, but they weren't obviously the main guy to beat. Plus, today's race might turn out to be based on fuel strategy. Michigan is a track where resources, fuel, and tires are going to be key to heading to victory lane. Based on all that, I have a few guys that should be looked at as contenders in the annual summer Michigan race. All of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers are definitely going to be contenders today. All of them have been fast and I expect them to be around when the pay window opens. Also, look at Kevin Harvick, Greg Biffle, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Tony Stewart, and Kurt Busch as possible winners of the race. Plus, consider Aric Almirola, Ryan Newman, Brian Vickers, and Paul Menard as possible upset winners this afternoon. I will finally be able to write about today's race and I am excited for the event. It should be a great one and I hope you guys can catch it as well. Well, that is all for me and until we meet again.





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